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Stuttgart have shown strong attacking metrics recently, producing high shot volumes and converting chances efficiently. Their home matches tend to be open, especially against teams that press and counter aggressively.
Eintracht Frankfurt are inconsistent defensively but reliable in attack. Their recent high-scoring draws and narrow losses suggest they remain competitive even when conceding early. Frankfurt rarely sit deep for long spells, which increases goal expectancy on both sides.
Expected goals profile favors both teams scoring.
Stuttgart’s win probability is slightly higher, but variance is elevated due to Frankfurt’s counter-attacking efficiency.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) has positive expected value.
Draw is mathematically interesting if priced above market average, as neither side dominates possession fully.
Projected score range: 1–1, 2–1.
Dortmund are strong at home, with high attacking output and consistent xG creation. They average multiple goals per match at Signal Iduna Park.
Werder Bremen struggle defensively, particularly away from home. Their scoring output is modest, but they do generate chances against aggressive teams.
Dortmund win probability exceeds 60 percent.
Bremen’s defensive concession rate aligns with matches exceeding 2.5 goals.
Dortmund to Win and Over 2.5 Goals shows strong expected value.
Dortmund to Win by 2 or more goals is viable if priced generously.
BTTS is secondary value if odds are high enough.
Projected score range: 3–1, 2–0.
Hamburg at home tend to play expansively, which increases both scoring chances and defensive exposure. They concede regularly but rarely fail to score in open matches.
Leverkusen are among the strongest possession and chance-creation teams in the league. However, they can be vulnerable when facing direct play, particularly away from home.
Match tempo likely high due to HSV’s style.
Defensive metrics suggest both teams conceding at least one goal.
Both Teams to Score has the highest consistency.
Leverkusen Draw No Bet provides protection against a high-variance home performance from HSV.
Projected score range: 1–2, 2–2.
Mainz show improved attacking structure at home and create enough chances to score multiple goals. Their pressing style often overwhelms teams in the lower half of the table.
Heidenheim are competitive but struggle defensively on the road. Their matches tend to be lower tempo unless they concede early.
Mainz goal expectancy is above league average in home fixtures.
Heidenheim away scoring probability is moderate but inconsistent.
Mainz Over 1.5 Team Goals carries solid expected value.
Mainz to Win combined with Under 4.5 Goals reduces variance while keeping upside.
Projected score range: 2–0, 2–1.
