🔵 Leg 1 – Algeria to WIN

Match: Equatorial Guinea vs Algeria
Kick Off: Wednesday 16:00
Odds: 1.80

Equatorial Guinea’s AFCON campaign has already ended in disappointment, suffering their first ever group stage elimination after narrow one goal defeats to Burkina Faso and Sudan. Defensive concentration has been their undoing, conceding twice in second half stoppage time in their opener before allowing the decisive goal in the 74th minute last time out. Those results mean they arrive here on a three match losing streak, scoring just once since mid November and winning only two of their last eleven matches overall.

Algeria look completely different. The 2019 AFCON champions have won both group matches without conceding, extending their unbeaten run inside 90 minutes to 18 games. A controlled 1 0 win over Burkina Faso confirmed top spot in the group regardless of this result, but momentum remains firmly with Vladimir Petković’s side, who have already matched their combined goal tally from the 2021 and 2023 AFCON tournaments in just two games.

Key Stats That Stand Out
• Both of Equatorial Guinea’s AFCON matches finished 0 0 at half time
• Equatorial Guinea have scored 2 or more goals just twice in their last 15 matches
• Algeria have not conceded the opening goal in any of their last eight games
• Algeria have received fewer cards than their opponents in each of their last three matches

Verdict
Equatorial Guinea are struggling for goals and concentration, while Algeria remain solid, disciplined and efficient. Even with qualification secured, Algeria’s control and quality should see them complete the group with another win.

🟣 Leg 2 – Burkina Faso to WIN

Match: Sudan vs Burkina Faso
Kick Off: Wednesday 16:00
Odds: 1.80

Sudan remain mathematically alive after edging Equatorial Guinea 1 0 via an own goal, but that victory was only their second in 14 matches. To qualify directly they need consecutive wins for the first time since last December, something their recent form suggests is a big ask. Even a defeat could still see them progress as one of the best third placed sides, which slightly reduces the pressure to chase this game.

Burkina Faso saw their seven match unbeaten run end against Algeria, but they remain in a strong position. A draw would be enough to secure qualification, yet their AFCON pedigree is strong, having reached at least the semi finals in four of the last five tournaments they progressed from the group. Their attacking threat tends to increase late in matches, which could be decisive here.

Key Stats That Stand Out
• Only 2 of Sudan’s last 12 matches saw both teams score
• 5 of Sudan’s last 7 defeats were by a margin of 2 goals or more
• 6 of Burkina Faso’s last 8 matches saw the half time result repeated at full time
• Burkina Faso scored 15 of their last 16 goals after the 30th minute

Verdict
Sudan’s limited attacking output and Burkina Faso’s late game strength point towards the Stallions having too much over 90 minutes, especially if this opens up after the break.

🔴 Leg 3 – Ivory Coast to WIN

Match: Gabon vs Ivory Coast
Kick Off: Wednesday 19:00
Odds: 1.60

Gabon’s AFCON has gone from bad to worse. After losing to Cameroon, they became the first nation ever to lose to Mozambique at the tournament. Now on a three match losing run, Gabon are facing a fifth group stage exit in their last seven AFCON appearances and are at risk of losing all three group games in a single edition for the first time since 1994.

Ivory Coast have not been spectacular, but they have been effective. A win over Mozambique followed by a draw with Cameroon has left them top of the group on fair play. A victory here would likely secure first place, and that motivation matters. They have won five of their last six AFCON matches and continue to manage games well despite margins often being tight.

Key Stats That Stand Out
• Gabon’s last eight goals were all scored after the 40th minute
• Gabon’s last nine AFCON matches were decided by one goal or less
• Only 1 of Ivory Coast’s last 14 matches saw both teams score
• The last six goals in Ivory Coast matches came before the hour mark

Verdict
Gabon are fading badly, while Ivory Coast remain disciplined and hard to break down. Even if it is tight, the favourites should have enough to take all three points.

⚫ Leg 4 – Cameroon to WIN

Match: Mozambique vs Cameroon
Kick Off: Wednesday 19:00
Odds: 1.70

Mozambique arrive full of belief after claiming their first ever AFCON finals win, beating Gabon 3 2. That result puts them firmly in contention to reach the knockout stages, but consistency has been an issue, with the Mambas failing to win back to back matches since June 2024.

Cameroon know that simply avoiding defeat guarantees a top two finish, but expectations are always higher for a nation chasing a sixth AFCON title. Despite a slow start, history is firmly on their side. Cameroon have lost just one of their last eight games against Mozambique and have won the last seven head to head meetings since an isolated defeat back in 1983.

Key Stats That Stand Out
• 8 of Mozambique’s last 10 AFCON matches produced over 2.5 goals
• Only 1 of Mozambique’s last 9 goals was scored before the 15th minute
• Cameroon scored 2 or more goals in 5 of the last 6 head to head meetings
• Just 1 of Cameroon’s previous 7 matches saw both teams score

Verdict
Mozambique’s energy could make this lively, but Cameroon’s experience, depth and strong head to head record should ultimately prevail over 90 minutes.