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Competition: Carabao Cup – Semi-Final (First Leg)
Kick-off: Monday • 20:00
Venue: Stamford Bridge
Selection: Double Chance – Draw or Arsenal
🔵 Match Overview
By their own lofty standards, both Chelsea and Arsenal have endured a prolonged domestic trophy drought, making this Carabao Cup semi-final a huge occasion for two London rivals.
Chelsea enter a new era under Liam Rosenior, who takes charge at Stamford Bridge for the first time after an emphatic 5–1 FA Cup win over Charlton. With the Blues last lifting a domestic trophy in 2017/18, silverware represents the fastest route to fan buy-in.
Arsenal, meanwhile, arrive as Premier League leaders and remain active across four competitions, knowing a strong first-leg result away from home could prove decisive.
🔵 Recent Form & Momentum
Chelsea’s Carabao Cup pedigree is strong, having lifted this trophy in 2014/15 and progressed from three of their last four semi-finals. However, home form remains inconsistent with just one win in their last four at Stamford Bridge.
Arsenal are in excellent rhythm, unbeaten in nine matches across all competitions (W8, D1). Their recent FA Cup win at Portsmouth extended an impressive away run that has seen 11 goals scored across four straight road victories.
🔴 Head-to-Head Notes
Arsenal are unbeaten in the last eight H2Hs against Chelsea (W5, D3).
Chelsea have not beaten Arsenal at Stamford Bridge since August 2018.
In the League Cup specifically, Chelsea have lost just one of the last six meetings, though that defeat came the last time these sides met in this competition.
🔵 Key Stats & Betting Angles
Seven of Chelsea’s last nine home games produced over 2.5 goals.
Six of Chelsea’s last seven goals arrived after half-time.
Arsenal have kept just one clean sheet in their last six away domestic matches.
Arsenal’s last seven H2H away goals at Chelsea all came in the second half.
🔴 Players to Watch
Enzo Fernández has contributed to four goals in his last five matches (G3, A1).
Gabriel Martinelli arrives fresh from a hat-trick in the FA Cup, with both of his previous H2H goals coming at Stamford Bridge.
🔵 Team News
Marc Cucurella returns from suspension for Chelsea, while Reece James and Cole Palmer remain doubtful.
Arsenal are hopeful of welcoming back Piero Hincapié and Riccardo Calafiori.
🔵 Betting Verdict
Chelsea may benefit from a short-term new-manager uplift, but Arsenal’s form, confidence, and strong recent record in this fixture make them difficult to oppose.
With this being a first leg and Arsenal content to manage the tie, the value sits with Double Chance – Draw or Arsenal, allowing protection against a tight stalemate.
