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Kick-off: Wednesday, 20:00
Competition: UEFA Champions League
Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Both Napoli and Chelsea arrive at the final UEFA Champions League league-phase matchday knowing that a win could define their European season. While Chelsea are already assured of knockout football, Napoli face a far more precarious situation as they attempt to climb into the top 24 and keep their European campaign alive.
Napoli begin matchday eight sitting 25th in the league-phase standings, narrowly outside the qualification places on goal difference. Their position leaves little margin for error, and realistically only a victory will give them a realistic chance of progressing. A frustrating 1-1 draw away to ten-man Copenhagen last week proved costly, and that disappointment was followed by a damaging 3-0 league defeat to Juventus at the weekend, raising questions about confidence and momentum at a critical point in the season.
Despite those setbacks, a return to Naples offers genuine hope. Napoli have built a formidable record at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, losing just once in their last 20 Champions League home matches (W12, D7). Even more impressively, they have not been beaten at home in any competition since December 2024, a run that stretches across 25 matches. With qualification on the line, the home crowd is expected to play a major role in what feels like a must-win occasion.
Chelsea arrive in Italy in a far more stable position, but with just as much motivation. New head coach Liam Rosenior has overseen a strong start to his tenure, winning four of his first five matches in charge. That run includes a crucial 1-0 Champions League victory over Pafos, a result that currently places Chelsea eighth in the standings — the final automatic qualification spot — albeit only on goal difference.
However, with eight teams locked on 13 points, Chelsea know that anything less than a win could see them dragged into the play-offs. That urgency makes this trip particularly tricky, especially given their poor recent European away form. Chelsea are winless in their last five Champions League away matches (D1, L4), a trend that threatens to undermine their push for a top-eight finish.
Chelsea’s history in Naples offers little encouragement. Their only previous visit to this stadium ended in a 3-1 defeat, and that result forms part of a broader pattern of struggles on Italian soil. The Blues have lost seven of their last nine European away matches against Italian opposition, managing just one win during that stretch.
Napoli have conceded nine of their 12 league-phase goals after half-time
Napoli have won just one of their last ten UCL matches against teams from Europe’s top five leagues
None of Chelsea’s league-phase matches featured a goal in the opening 15 minutes
Chelsea’s seven Champions League games this season have averaged two first-half goals per match
Scott McTominay has been a standout performer in Napoli’s European campaign, scoring four headers in the Champions League this season. Notably, he also netted a headed brace against Chelsea in a previous meeting while playing for Manchester United, highlighting his aerial threat once again.
For Chelsea, Enzo Fernández continues to deliver in key moments. His goal at the weekend was his fourth away strike among his last five goals for the club, all of which have been decisive late contributions.
Napoli remain hampered by a lengthy injury list, with Kevin De Bruyne the most high-profile absentee. Chelsea also have concerns, with Cole Palmer picking up another knock that places his involvement in doubt.
With Napoli effectively facing elimination and Chelsea desperate to protect their top-eight position, this fixture carries enormous pressure at both ends. Napoli’s dominant home form contrasts sharply with Chelsea’s away struggles, while both sides possess enough attacking quality to exploit defensive weaknesses late in games.
Rather than trying to split two teams who both need to win, the safest angle may be focusing on goals at both ends.
Both Teams to Score – YES
With qualification on the line and neither side able to settle for a draw, this has all the ingredients of a tense, open contest in Naples.
